The gluten-free market is getting greater and extra highly effective with every passing yr.
Now value an estimated $7.7bn (€6.6bn), it’s rising at a robust 10% CAGR, and projected to hit $13.6bn by 2030 (market analysts Grand View Analysis).
Regardless of this, the meals and beverage business continues to underestimate its potential, significantly at Christmas. Although issues are beginning to shift.
Seasonal surge for gluten-free
Christmas is the most necessary time of yr for meals and beverage gross sales. Shoppers top off on all the pieces, from bread, milk and eggs to goodies, cheeses and wines. And on high of which might be the Christmas-themed meals.
“Throughout the festive season, objects like mince pies, yuletide logs, Christmas puddings, and specialty biscuits witness a surge in demand,” says Manvi Verma, senior analysis analyst at Mordor Intelligence. “As the vacations strategy, shoppers not solely purchase extra continuously but additionally spend extra per unit.”
This development is especially noticeable in mature markets, together with Europe and North America, the place health-conscious and lifestyle-driven shoppers are more and more selecting gluten-free vacation meals.
Given this seasonal spike, says Verma, it’s probably that the gluten-free festive phase will outpace the typical progress price of the broader gluten-free class.
In different phrases, Christmas presents big potential for producers to spice up gluten-free gross sales.
And whereas gluten-free innovation and NPD has been gradual, business curiosity is starting to select up. In actual fact, retail developments for 2024-25 reveal that main UK and US retailers, together with Sainsbury’s, Waitrose, Tesco, Walmart, and Wegmans, are broadening their gluten-free Christmas picks. What’s extra, gluten-free merchandise at the moment are being built-in into central festive shows, reasonably than separate specialist cabinets.
In the meantime, artisanal gluten-free bakeries are more and more launching devoted festive collections, introducing objects like luxurious muffins and mini-tarts. This transfer underscores a development in direction of premiumisation within the sector.
This shift, explains Verma, exhibits a twin recognition – heightened shopper consciousness and the realisation that gluten-free festive objects can rival conventional ones in each indulgence and high quality.
Manufacturers attuned to this shift stand poised to achieve market share, whereas these lagging could discover themselves sidelined from the premium phase of festive progress.
Gluten-free festive alternatives
The velocity at which the gluten-free sector is rising, mixed with the energy of the worldwide Christmas items market – now valued at round $180bn, with a CAGR of 4.2% – presents huge alternatives for the meals and beverage business. And, based on Verma, it’s underpinned by a trio of distinct however overlapping shopper teams, every with distinctive drivers and implications for product design and go-to advertising and marketing methods.
Gluten-free shopper teams
- The clinically mandated group: People with coeliac illness, for whom avoiding gluten is important. Whereas this group is comparatively small, their demand for licensed gluten-free festive merchandise is unwavering, establishing a steady basis for the class
- The life-style, wellness, and clean-eating group: Although these shoppers lack medical situations, they go for gluten-free to help well being and wellness targets. Whereas their consumption could wane post-Christmas, this phase presents important scale and margin potential for premium festive merchandise
- The occasion-driven group: Festive buyers who, whereas not gluten-free themselves, purchase gluten-free objects for visitors with dietary necessities or preferences. As inclusive gifting and communal eating achieve traction, gluten-free merchandise have gotten staples of the vacation season, shifting past specialist-food aisles.
What do gluten-free shoppers need?
Gluten-free baked items and desserts are main the cost in festive gross sales. Traditional treats like mince pies, yuletide logs, and Christmas puddings now boast gluten-free variations that don’t compromise on style or texture. Past the bakery aisle, gross sales of gluten-free sweets and snacks are additionally rising quick.
Whereas savoury dishes nonetheless grapple with attaining the fitting texture and flavour, the premium ready-to-cook market is making strides.
“Retailers at the moment are introducing gluten-free stuffing mixes, gravies, and even pastry-based mains,” says Verma. “The Christmas dinner desk is evolving, showcasing the developments in gluten-free formulations.”
Challenges slowing gluten-free progress
Meals and beverage producers face important challenges on the subject of gluten-free new product improvement.
- Value: Components like licensed gluten-free flour blends, specialty starches, and different binders include a premium price ticket. With out attaining a major manufacturing scale, the associated fee per unit stays excessive
- Formulation and sensory high quality: Replicating the elevate, crumb, crispness, and mouthfeel of wheat-based merchandise calls for subtle analysis and improvement. That is significantly essential for festive bakery and dessert objects, like mince pies and yuletide logs, the place indulgence is paramount
- Provide-chain and certification complexity: Producing gluten-free objects for the coeliac neighborhood necessitates stringent cross-contact controls, devoted manufacturing strains or thorough cleansing, and continuously, third-party certification
- Regulatory/health-policy shifts: Past recipes and product launches, exterior components play a major function. For instance, alterations in gluten-free meals prescription insurance policies by governing our bodies can affect family economics and perceptions of gluten-free accessibility. Moreover, as gluten-free merchandise achieve mainstream traction, there’s heightened scrutiny on laws and labelling, particularly regarding allergen cross-contact and dietary claims.
“Producers eyeing the gluten-free festive market ought to prioritise early investments in ingredient sourcing, co-packing, or establishing devoted manufacturing strains,” says Verma. “Moreover, they need to deal with shopper sensory validation, aligning their efforts with festive timelines.”
The gluten-free ghost of Christmas future
As gluten-free continues its ascent from area of interest to necessity, the festive season presents a golden alternative for manufacturers to rethink their strategy.
With shopper expectations rising and retail methods evolving, producers should transfer past token choices and put money into high quality, innovation, and inclusivity.
Those that act now, prioritising sensory excellence, operational readiness, and strategic positioning, stand to seize not simply seasonal gross sales, however long-term loyalty in a market that’s solely gaining momentum.
