In its newest quick time period vitality outlook (STEO), which was launched on November 12, the U.S. Vitality Info Administration (EIA) lowered its U.S. whole vitality consumption forecast for 2025 and 2026 however nonetheless projected a rise in demand from this 12 months to subsequent 12 months.
Based on its November STEO, the EIA now sees whole vitality consumption coming in at 95.71 quadrillion British thermal items (qBtu) in 2025 and 95.97 qBtu in 2026. This determine got here in at 94.57 qBtu in 2024, the EIA’s newest STEO confirmed.
The EIA forecast in its November STEO that whole vitality consumption will are available at 23.96 qBtu within the fourth quarter, 24.81 qBtu within the first quarter of subsequent 12 months, 22.51 qBtu within the second quarter, 24.31 qBtu within the third quarter, and 24.34 qBtu within the fourth quarter. It highlighted that this demand was 25.45 qBtu within the first quarter, 22.45 qBtu within the second quarter, and 23.85 qBtu within the third quarter of 2025.
In its earlier STEO, which was launched in October, the EIA projected that whole vitality consumption would stand at 95.76 qBtu this 12 months and 96.02 qBtu subsequent 12 months.
That STEO forecast that whole vitality consumption would are available at 24.01 qBtu within the fourth quarter of 2025, 24.83 qBtu within the first quarter of 2026, 22.51 qBtu within the second quarter, 24.30 qBtu within the third quarter, and 24.38 qBtu within the fourth quarter.
The EIA’s October STEO additionally confirmed that whole vitality consumption hit 25.45 qBtu within the first quarter of this 12 months, 22.45 qBtu within the second quarter, and 23.85 qBtu within the third quarter. This STEO additionally highlighted that whole vitality consumption was 94.57 qBtu in 2024.
Liquid Fuels, Pure Gasoline
In its newest STEO, the EIA projected that U.S. liquid fuels demand will improve from 2024 to 2025, then drop barely in 2026.
Based on its November STEO, U.S. liquid fuels consumption will common 20.49 million barrels per day this 12 months and 20.48 million barrels per day subsequent 12 months. This demand averaged 20.46 million barrels per day in 2024, the EIA’s November STEO highlighted.
A quarterly breakdown included within the EIA’s newest STEO confirmed that the EIA expects U.S. liquid fuels demand to common 20.35 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter, 20.14 million barrels per day within the first quarter of subsequent 12 months, 20.56 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 20.67 million barrels per day within the third quarter, and 20.54 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter.
The EIA projected that U.S. pure fuel consumption will improve each this 12 months and subsequent 12 months in its newest STEO.
On this STEO, the EIA forecast that U.S. pure fuel demand will common 91.6 billion cubic toes per day in 2025 and 91.8 billion cubic toes per day in 2026. The STEO highlighted that this consumption averaged 90.4 billion cubic toes per day again in 2024.
A quarterly breakdown included within the EIA’s November STEO confirmed that the EIA expects U.S. pure fuel demand to common 93.8 billion cubic toes per day within the fourth quarter, 106.3 billion cubic toes per day within the first quarter of subsequent 12 months, 78.6 billion cubic toes per day within the second quarter, 87.0 billion cubic toes per day within the third quarter, and 95.4 billion cubic toes per day within the fourth quarter.
Renewables
The EIA additionally sees U.S. renewables consumption rising in 2025 and 2026 in its newest STEO, which projected that this consumption will rise from 8.68 qBtu in 2024 to eight.80 qBtu in 2025 and 9.42 qBtu in 2026.
A quarterly breakdown included within the EIA’s November STEO confirmed that the EIA expects U.S. renewables demand to come back in at 2.18 qBtu within the fourth quarter of this 12 months, 2.28 qBtu within the first quarter of 2026, 2.48 within the second quarter, 2.38 within the third quarter, and a couple of.29 qBtu within the fourth quarter.
The EIA famous in its STEOs that renewable vitality consists of minor elements of non-marketed renewable vitality that’s neither purchased nor offered, both straight or not directly, as inputs to marketed vitality. The EIA added within the STEOs that it doesn’t estimate or venture end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable vitality.
In a word associated to its whole vitality consumption figures, the EIA stated in its STEOs that the conversion from bodily items to Btu is calculated utilizing a subset of conversion elements used within the calculations of gross vitality consumption in EIA’s Month-to-month Vitality Overview (MER).
The EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates unbiased and neutral vitality info to advertise sound policymaking, environment friendly markets, and public understanding of vitality and its interplay with the financial system and the surroundings, the EIA states on its web site.
To contact the writer, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
