Weekly highlights
- Asia-US West Coast costs (FBX01 Weekly) elevated 22% to $2,096/FEU.
- Asia-US East Coast costs (FBX03 Weekly) elevated 2% to $2,930/FEU.
- Asia-N. Europe costs (FBX11 Weekly) stayed degree at $2,464/FEU.
- Asia-Mediterranean costs (FBX13 Weekly) elevated 15% to $3,367/FEU.
- China – N. America weekly costs elevated 18% to $7.63/kg.
- China – N. Europe weekly costs decreased 12% to $3.64/kg.
- N. Europe – N. America weekly costs elevated 2% to $2.48/kg.
Evaluation
The previous week has supplied extra indicators of encouragement for a container market return to the Purple Sea. Along with the Houthis’ launch of crew members held in Yemen since a vessel assault in July, CMA CGM and its Ocean Alliance introduced a few of their companies – escorted by French naval vessels – will now transit the Suez Canal for all backhaul voyages, with one other additionally crusing headhaul by way of the Purple Sea.
None of those developments make a Purple Sea rebound imminent nevertheless, and a full return may nonetheless be fairly a methods off. However the eventual return of container site visitors to the Purple Sea will finally launch a surge of capability again right into a market already battling oversupply.
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Transpacific container charges to the West Coast hit a low for the yr of about $1,400/FEU in early October. Since then, carriers have sought to cut back capability and introduce GRIs, leading to a (comparatively slow-moving) rollercoaster for costs on these lanes as supply-driven charges rise, retreat and repeat.
Carriers had been capable of push West Coast charges up in mid-October and once more to start out November, leading to an early-November climb to about $3,000/FEU solely to see costs fall to $1,700/FEU by the tip of the month.
However costs ticked up once more to start out December – regardless of volumes projected to be the bottom of the yr – with charges to the West Coast up 22% final week to $2,100/FEU. Some carriers are introducing smaller, incremental will increase on a weekly foundation versus the extra typical bi-monthly GRIs within the hopes that the market will settle for smaller value bumps extra simply than sharper will increase. This development could also be mirrored in each day charges for this week up one other $100/FEU to $2,200/FEU to the West Coast and to greater than $3,000/FEU to the East Coast, although as soon as once more this month there’s skepticism that these costs will maintain.
Regardless of some observers anticipating the US market to enter a restocking cycle that will spur ocean quantity progress subsequent yr, others are much less optimistic. The NRF anticipates retailer expectations for unfavorable commerce conflict impacts on client conduct will end in double-digit share yr on yr ocean import quantity declines by April of subsequent yr, with demand decrease than 2024 ranges as properly.
Commerce conflict frontloading is partly guilty for decrease US ocean import volumes now, and for the sharply unfavorable yr on yr comparisons for these anticipating weak volumes for Q1 2026. Europe’s ocean imports in the meantime – particularly as China has shifted focus away from the US and towards different markets together with Europe – have been stronger and extra constant than N. America’s. CTS information reveals whole ocean imports to Europe eased 2% in month-on-month October, however had been nonetheless 1% greater than a yr in the past. Asia – Europe volumes fell 3% yr over yr in October for the primary annual lower since February.
Regardless of easing, slow-season volumes, carriers have had extra success propping up Asia-Europe charges in This fall than they’ve on the transpacific partly as a consequence of extra aggressive blanked sailings as these lanes enter the house stretch of their annual ocean contract negotiation interval.
GRIs beginning mid-October have pushed Asia – Europe charges up 40% to $2,463/FEU by final week, although costs have been degree since late November. Asia – Mediterranean charges are up 56% to $3,366/FEU together with a $500/FEU bump to start out December. Some carriers have introduced extra GRIs for mid-December, aiming to push N. Europe charges to $3,500/FEU and Mediterranean costs to $4,200/FEU or greater.
Because the air cargo market enters its last peak season weeks, Freightos Air Index information suggests transpacific demand energy. China – US charges climbed from round $5.30/kg in mid-October to $6.50/kg to shut November, and at the moment are pushing previous the $7.50/kg mark – above final yr’s $7.30/kg peak – in the course of the end-of-season rush.
Demand is probably going stronger on Asia – Europe lanes as China’s e-commerce export focus has additionally shifted to Europe. However the parallel shift of capability away from the transpacific and to Asia-Europe lanes – additionally an element within the present, greater transpacific charges – has saved Asia – Europe costs from spiking. China – Europe charges eased 12% to $3.64/kg final week and are about on par with a yr in the past.
The EU and the UK have introduced plans to shut their de minimis exemptions throughout the subsequent few years, with a number of international locations planning dealing with charges for low worth imports even earlier than the rule change. US de minimis closures initially led to a pointy lower in China-US e-comm air cargo volumes. And although volumes stay under April ranges, some experiences present a lot of that e-comm demand has returned to the China-US air market as e-commerce platforms have tailored to the brand new guidelines.
