Mortgage buy software information
Mortgage buy software information is a forward-looking indicator, because it usually takes about 30-90 days for buy apps to result in residence gross sales. In some instances, it may well even be longer, as most sellers are homebuyers, and it relies on how lengthy it takes to promote and purchase their subsequent residence.
The important thing for buy apps is to have optimistic week-to-week and year-over-year progress information collectively, which we have now seen within the final 19 weeks. We are actually at multiyear highs going into 2026.
- 11 optimistic week-to-week prints
- 8 unfavourable week-to-week prints
- 19 weeks of double-digit year-over-year progress
Final week, we had 19% year-over-year progress and buy apps at multiyear highs. I’m nonetheless stunned by the double-digit year-over-year progress, as yearly comps are a lot more durable now than earlier within the yr.
Beneath is the info for the complete yr. Earlier within the yr, when mortgage charges had been above 6.64%, we actually didn’t have a lot optimistic week-to-week information. Nonetheless, even with charges above 6.64% the info held up higher than in earlier years.
- 23 optimistic readings
- 19 unfavourable readings
- 6 flat prints
- 45 straight weeks of optimistic year-over-year information
- 32 consecutive weeks of double-digit progress yr over yr
Complete weekly pending residence gross sales
Our complete weekly pending residence gross sales information seems to be out 30-60 days and final week we hit a four-year excessive in demand. If mortgage charges keep close to 6% for the early a part of 2026, it does look encouraging for progress in gross sales in 2026. Listed here are the weekly pending residence gross sales over the past 4 years:
2025: 309,719
2024: 303,849
2023: 275,022
2022: 277,102
Mortgage charges, spreads and the 10-year yield
In my 2025 forecast, I anticipated the next ranges:
- Mortgage charges between 5.75% and seven.25%
- The ten-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.70%
The ten-year yield and mortgage charges have been in a spread for a couple of months close to yearly lows. Even with the Fed assembly behind us and the third charge lower in for 2025, it’s been laborious to get under 4% on the 10-year yield, which appears proper to me. So long as we have now a impartial coverage within the books, the 10-year yield shouldn’t go under 3.80% except the labor market is breaking or the bond market believes in an financial progress scare, because it did in 2023 and 2024.
Mortgage charges ranged between 6.36% and 6.32% final week, per Mortgage Information Day by day. Polly, which tracks locked loans throughout all credit score profiles, confirmed charges at 6.34%.
Mortgage spreads
For 2025, I used to be in search of a 0.27%-0.41% enchancment in mortgage spreads, utilizing a 2.54% common for 2024, and this week the info has been higher than that at a 0.48% enchancment. Traditionally, mortgage spreads have ranged between 1.60% and 1.80%. If right this moment’s spreads had been as dangerous as they had been on the peak of 2023, mortgage charges could be roughly 1.04% increased, at 7.36%. Conversely, if the spreads returned to their regular vary, mortgage charges could be 0.46% to 0.26% decrease than right this moment’s degree, that means they’d be 5.86% to six.06%.
Weekly housing stock information
Housing stock is now in its conventional seasonal decline, however we did have good progress this yr. At one level, we had 33% stock progress over final yr, however that fell to 13.69% final week. In mid-June I famous that the housing market was shifting and that it could take individuals three to 6 months to comprehend this was occurring as a result of they had been working with very outdated information.
- Weekly stock change (Dec. 5-12): Stock fell from 795,212 to 775,339
- Similar week final yr (Dec. 6-Dec. 13): Stock fell from 689,964 to 682,152
New listings information
New listings are additionally experiencing the standard seasonal decline. I used to be very excited earlier within the yr when my forecast for weekly new listings — above 80,000 — lastly occurred. However my pleasure was short-lived as the brand new listings information peaked in late Might and started trending downward thereafter. In any case, 2025 was an enormous enchancment over 2023, which had the bottom new listings information ever recorded, adopted by 2024. 2025 seems to be to be the third-lowest in historical past.
To present you some perspective, through the years of the housing bubble crash, new listings had been hovering between 250,000 and 400,000 per week for a few years. Right here’s final week’s new listings information over the previous two years:
- 2025: 42,499
- 2024: 45,287
Worth-cut share
In a typical yr, about one-third of properties expertise value reductions, highlighting the housing market’s dynamic nature. Many householders alter their sale costs as stock ranges rise and mortgage charges keep elevated.
For my 2025 value forecast, I anticipated a modest 1.77% enhance in residence costs and it seems to be like we shall be ending the yr at that degree. The seasonal decline in price-cut share is right here, as we prep for 2026. Worth-cut percentages for final week over the past two years:
The week forward: Quite a lot of information coming
We’ve got quite a lot of information popping out this week, together with builders’ confidence, the roles report, inflation, retail gross sales, bond auctions and jobless claims. We’re on the verge of breaking a key degree with the 10-year yield that might ship mortgage charges a little bit increased, so it is going to be attention-grabbing to see how the bond market, mortgage charges and spreads act with all the info developing.
