Denver — U.S. demand for sugar stays resilient regardless of customers’ acknowledged intentions to chop again, however the rising use of GLP-1 medicines, health-focused initiatives, and altering dietary preferences might weigh on the sweetener market over the subsequent decade, in line with a brand new report from CoBank’s Data Change.
The report discovered that rising sugar deliveries, steady consumption ranges, and declining use of high-fructose corn syrup proceed to level to robust shopper demand for pure sweeteners. Nonetheless, CoBank cautions that these tendencies shouldn’t be considered as a assure of future demand.
“For sugar producers, refiners and meals producers the central query is now not whether or not demand is steady at the moment, however how rising tendencies will reshape the market over the subsequent decade,” says Billy Roberts, meals and beverage economist with CoBank. “GLP-1 medicines particularly are poised to have the largest impression on demand as a result of they cut back general consumption, and sugar stays deeply embedded throughout many meals and beverage classes.”
J.P. Morgan estimates GLP-1 use might cut back annual U.S. meals and beverage spending by $30 billion by 2030 and $55 billion by 2034. Some projections additionally counsel grocery basket sizes might decline by as a lot as 31 % amongst lively customers. CoBank famous that whereas sweetened meals and drinks are unlikely to be singled out, they may expertise decrease demand as customers eat much less general. The impression might speed up after 2031, when key semaglutide patents expire within the U.S., probably increasing entry to lower-cost generic medicines.
The report additionally pointed to health-focused initiatives, together with the Make America Wholesome Once more motion, as elements growing shopper consciousness of added sugars. Whereas these efforts haven’t but considerably affected consumption, they may affect long-term buying habits.
Shopper survey knowledge additional counsel a altering market. In keeping with the Worldwide Meals Data Council, 75 % of customers in 2025 reported making an attempt to restrict or keep away from sugar. Nonetheless, CoBank mentioned customers usually are not essentially changing sugar with low- or no-calorie sweeteners.
“Well being-conscious customers could reject each sugar and synthetic options reasonably than selecting one over the opposite,” Roberts says. “Meaning opposition to synthetic elements doesn’t essentially translate into speedy progress for sugar demand. As a substitute, it tends to assist demand for pure sweeteners relative to artificial choices.”
For now, sugar deliveries proceed to outperform expectations. USDA knowledge by means of April confirmed elevated deliveries to wholesale grocers, beverage producers, bakery and cereal producers, and confectionery corporations, offsetting declines in shipments to authorities businesses, dairy processors, foodservice operators, and frozen meals producers.
Roberts added that snack producers proceed to reformulate merchandise to satisfy evolving shopper preferences whereas sustaining style and affordability. He additionally notes that pure sweeteners, together with stevia, are gaining momentum as producers broaden their use throughout dairy merchandise, baked items, and different meals functions.
“Whereas different sweeteners proceed to achieve some traction, pure sweeteners seem to have stronger long-term momentum,” Roberts says. “These tendencies counsel that buyers usually are not merely changing sugar with synthetic sweeteners, however gravitating towards merchandise perceived as extra pure.”
