![Brisbane Aerial Panorama, Queensland, Australia](data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 1280 720"%3E%3C/svg%3E)
KPMG has revised its 2026 forecast for Brisbane, nearly doubling it to about 11 per cent.
Brisbane home costs will surge 11 per cent this yr – double Sydney’s tempo – as specialists say a ‘excellent storm’ is seeing patrons right here keen to pay greater than fundamentals justify.
In a shock forecast, economists and valuers warn Brisbane’s runaway property market is defying affordability constraints that ought to have cooled demand months in the past, with KPMG predicting home costs will soar 10.9 per cent in 2026 – dwarfing Sydney’s 5.8 per cent – and items to rise 7.8 per cent.
The forecast follows a 14.6 per cent soar in Brisbane’s median dwelling value final yr, with costs rising $135,900 to interrupt via $1 million, PropTrack knowledge reveals.
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KMPG’s housing market predictions for 2026 throughout Australia. Supply: KPMG.
KPMG chief economist Dr Brendan Rynne mentioned costs had been operating forward of fundamentals resulting from worry of lacking out and the Albanese Authorities’s expanded 5 per cent Deposit Scheme pulling demand ahead.
“We’re observing costs operating forward of what underlying fundamentals would usually suggest for Brisbane at this level within the cycle,” Dr Rynne mentioned. “Meaning sentiment results – renewed urgency, investor re-engagement, worry of lacking out – and policy-driven demand have added an additional premium on prime of the structural undersupply.”
The forecast represents a dramatic revision from KPMG’s earlier prediction of 5.6 per cent home value development and three.3 per cent for items.
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KPMG chief economist Dr Brendan Rynne says Brisbane is forecast to see 10.9 per cent development in home costs in 2026. Supply: KPMG.
The Australian Property Institute backed the outlook, rating Queensland at 8.3 out of 10 for market power towards a nationwide studying of seven.1, with API chief economist Dr Sherman Chan describing a “excellent storm” of inhabitants development outstripping provide whereas building prices soar.
Development prices had been the highest concern for 66.3 per cent of Queensland valuers API surveyed, adopted by rates of interest, inhabitants development and twin provide shortages.
Dr Rynne mentioned the demand provide imbalance was extra acute in Brisbane than Sydney, with infrastructure funding linked to the 2032 Olympics having a sizeable influence on inhabitants inflows, investor curiosity and speculative exercise.
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Australian Property Institute Chief Economist Dr Sherman Chan has discovered Queensland ranks close to the highest nationally for general property sentiment with residential markets supported by robust inhabitants development and restricted provide. Supply: API
However he warned rates of interest posed a significant danger, with a 50 foundation level rise usually trimming Brisbane’s annual development by a number of share factors.
Canstar.com.au knowledge insights director Sally Tindall mentioned that danger was constructing, with banks mountain climbing 176 mounted charges prior to now week.
“With final week’s unemployment fee of 4.1 per cent clearing the trail for a fee hike, the (RBA) Board’s choice now hinges on Wednesday’s inflation figures,” Ms Tindall mentioned.
Dr Rynne warned the 5 per cent Deposit Scheme was delivering solely short-term advantages. “The scheme helps eligible FHBs keep away from LMI, delivering tangible financial financial savings. But it surely additionally raises demand in lower-priced segments, lifting costs and never addressing the structural provide constraint. Due to this fact affordability advantages aren’t lasting.”
Brisbane’s forecast trails solely Perth at 12.8 per cent, whereas Melbourne is predicted to see 6.8 per cent development and Adelaide 8.2 per cent.
KPMG expects Brisbane’s development to reasonable to eight.9 per cent in 2027 as affordability tightens and provide progressively improves.
Housing supply-housing demand imbalance. Supply: KPMG
