Germany is making ready to take probably the most aggressive steps in opposition to vape flavours seen anyplace in Europe, proposing a sweeping ban not solely on menthol but additionally on a variety of so-called “cooling” components generally utilized in e-liquids. Framed as a protecting measure for younger individuals, the transfer has raised alarm amongst hurt discount specialists who warn it may undermine smoking cessation and push former people who smoke again to flamable cigarettes. These considerations are amplified by Germany’s start line: smoking charges stay stubbornly excessive, whereas vaping uptake amongst adults is relatively low, a sample that stands in stark distinction to international locations reminiscent of Sweden, the place widespread use of safer nicotine options has coincided with historic declines in smoking.
Underneath a draft regulation from the Federal Ministry for Agriculture, Meals and Homeland, substances reminiscent of menthol, sucralose and numerous artificial cooling brokers can be prohibited in vaping merchandise. Officers argue these components clean the inhalation expertise, scale back throat irritation and coughing, and should encourage deeper inhalation or increased nicotine consumption. The proposal depends closely on assessments from the Federal Institute for Danger Evaluation, which notes that cooling brokers activate chilly receptors within the mouth and airways, making vapour really feel much less harsh.
But even throughout the draft itself, the proof base seems skinny. Regulators concede there isn’t any clear information exhibiting menthol vaping results in higher nicotine absorption or increased well being dangers. Nonetheless, German authorities are invoking the precautionary precept, arguing that the subjective “cooling impact” alone justifies prohibition.
If adopted, the principles would apply to each units and refill liquids, forcing producers to reformulate merchandise or withdraw them fully from the German market. Extra provisions would tighten labeling necessities and develop regulators’ energy to demand product samples throughout approval processes. The measures would take impact simply six months after adoption, leaving little time for customers or companies to adapt. But what considerations hurt discount advocates most will not be merely the ban itself, however what historical past suggests will comply with, notably in a rustic the place smoking stays frequent.
However what does science present us?
The German proposal lands at odds with a rising physique of analysis indicating that flavoured vapes, together with menthols, typically play a significant position in serving to grownup people who smoke absolutely transition away from cigarettes.
The German proposal lands at odds with a rising physique of analysis indicating that flavoured vapes, together with menthols, typically play a significant position in serving to grownup people who smoke absolutely transition away from cigarettes. This proof is very related in Germany, given the native stall in smoking cessation progress.
A big U.S. cohort research following greater than 22,000 grownup people who smoke who bought JUUL vapes tracked contributors over two years, utilizing as much as ten follow-up surveys. As a result of participant drop-out can bias outcomes, researchers rigorously examined their findings below a number of assumptions, together with conservative fashions that handled lacking contributors as persevering with people who smoke and superior statistical imputation strategies.
Throughout each technique, menthol use was constantly related to increased charges of full switching, outlined as no cigarette smoking within the earlier 30 days. Adults who selected menthol JUUL merchandise had been roughly 11 to fifteen p.c extra more likely to give up smoking fully than those that used tobacco-flavoured variations. Switching charges had been 5 to 6 share factors increased amongst menthol customers, no matter how lacking information had been dealt with.
Notably, the profit was strongest amongst adults who beforehand smoked non-menthol cigarettes, suggesting menthol might supply added attraction or satisfaction in the course of the transition away from smoking. The researchers additionally discovered little proof that survey attrition biased outcomes, strengthening confidence within the findings. In brief, menthol vaping merchandise had been related to higher success in changing cigarettes, not elevated hurt.
Historical past presents a warning
Germany’s transfer additionally dangers repeating coverage failures already documented elsewhere. Canada presents a very stark warning, one that’s particularly related for international locations the place smoking stays prevalent and options are nonetheless gaining floor.
A latest financial evaluation analyzing retail gross sales information from a number of Canadian provinces between 2018 and 2023 discovered that jurisdictions implementing strict vape flavour bans noticed cigarette gross sales rise by almost 10 p.c on common. The research lined provinces with various approaches, from outright bans on all non-tobacco flavours to partial restrictions confining flavoured merchandise to adult-only specialty shops.
Throughout the board, flavoured vape gross sales collapsed nearly fully as soon as restrictions took impact. Whereas some customers shifted to tobacco-flavoured or unflavoured vapes, a considerable share returned to flamable cigarettes. This substitution impact was particularly putting on condition that comfort shops and gasoline stations beforehand accounted for many vape gross sales.
Canada’s expertise is especially instructive as a result of it already enforces a few of the world’s hardest tobacco controls, together with plain packaging, menthol cigarette bans and nicotine limits in vaping merchandise. Even in that atmosphere, eradicating flavours coincided with elevated smoking, underscoring how fragile progress will be when hurt discount instruments are constrained.
These findings align with earlier U.S. analysis utilizing totally different datasets and methodologies. A number of research have proven that when flavoured vaping merchandise are restricted, reductions in vaping are sometimes offset by will increase in cigarette smoking. The sample is constant: demand for nicotine doesn’t disappear, it shifts towards extra harmful merchandise.
The general public well being paradox
Public well being authorities in Germany, as throughout the globe, all acknowledge that vaping, whereas not risk-free, is considerably much less dangerous than smoking. Combustion stays the first driver of smoking-related illness and loss of life. Insurance policies that make vaping much less interesting or much less accessible due to this fact carry actual dangers in the event that they nudge individuals again towards cigarettes, notably in international locations like Germany the place smoking charges stay excessive and hurt discount uptake is lagging.
Germany’s draft regulation provides little consideration to this substitution dynamic. For adults who give up smoking utilizing menthol or cooling vapes, the proposal presents no significant options and no transition interval past six months. As a substitute, it assumes that eradicating sensory attraction will scale back nicotine use general, regardless of rising proof on the contrary and regardless of clear worldwide examples, reminiscent of Sweden, the place embracing safer options has delivered record-low smoking charges.
Critics argue that this displays a broader regulatory development in Europe and North America, the place policymakers focus narrowly on youth uptake whereas discounting grownup habits and real-world outcomes. Worldwide examples recommend youth use will be addressed by strict age enforcement, advertising controls and retail oversight, with out eliminating flavours that adults depend on to remain smoke-free.
A selection bearing severe penalties
Germany’s initiative is more likely to affect wider European debates about whether or not sensory results, past flavour itself, ought to be regulated out of nicotine merchandise fully. If adopted, it may embolden different international locations to pursue related bans, additional narrowing the hurt discount toolbox accessible to people who smoke, notably in high-smoking international locations the place options have but to achieve crucial mass.
The proof from Canada, the US and huge cohort research suggests such an method is counterproductive. Flavour bans might really feel precautionary, however in follow they’ll weaken hurt discount, stall smoking cessation and even enhance cigarette consumption. As researchers and coverage analysts more and more warn, blunt regulatory instruments typically produce unintended penalties. Within the case of vape flavours, these penalties might embrace stalling or reversing hard-won public well being positive aspects.
For international locations severe about decreasing smoking-related illness, the lesson is obvious: insurance policies ought to be judged by information and outcomes, not intentions. Eradicating merchandise that assist people who smoke give up, within the absence of sturdy proof of hurt, is doing extra harm than good.
Canada’s Quebec Has Simply Banned Vape Flavours. However do Such Bans Work?
