Washington — Following a near-record peak this summer season, import cargo quantity on the nation’s main container ports is anticipated to steadily decline for the rest of the yr amid rising tariffs, in keeping with the World Port Tracker report from the Nationwide Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
“Now we have seen the implementation of reciprocal tariffs throughout the globe, with a variety of key buying and selling companions being subjected to tariffs increased than the sooner 10 % tariffs,” NRF Vice President for Provide Chain and Customs Coverage Jonathan Gold says. “We additionally proceed to see extra sectoral tariffs impacting a wider scope of merchandise. Retailers have stocked up as a lot as they will forward of tariff will increase, however the uncertainty of U.S. commerce coverage is making it unattainable to make the long-term plans which are vital to future enterprise success. These tariffs and disruptions to the availability chain are including prices that can in the end result in increased costs for American customers.”
Whereas “reciprocal” tariffs on a variety of international locations took impact in early August, a federal appeals courtroom later dominated in opposition to President Donald Trump’s use of the Worldwide Emergency Financial Powers Act to impose the tariffs, however left them in place whereas the ruling is beneath attraction to the Supreme Court docket. In the meantime, Trump delayed a rise in tariffs on China by 90 days to November 10 so commerce negotiations might proceed. Trump additionally introduced a further 25 % tariff on India that took impact close to the tip of August, bringing the extra tariff charge to 50 %.
“Tariffs have had a big influence on commerce,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett says. “The commerce outlook for the ultimate months of the yr is just not optimistic.”
U.S. ports coated by World Port Tracker dealt with 2.36 million Twenty-Foot Equal Models (TEU) — one 20-foot container or its equal — in July, though numbers for New York/New Jersey, Port Everglades and Miami had been estimated as a result of they haven’t but reported their knowledge. That was up 20.1 % from June as retailers introduced in merchandise forward of tariffs set to take impact in August, and up 1.8 % yr over yr. It could be the second-busiest month on report, topped solely by 2.4 million TEU in Might 2022.
Ports haven’t but reported numbers for August, however World Port Tracker projected the month at 2.28 million TEU, down 1.7 % yr over yr however increased than that 2.2 million TEU anticipated earlier than the postponement of China tariffs and the brand new tariff on India.
September is forecast at 2.12 million TEU, down 6.8 % yr over yr; October at 1.95 million TEU, down 13.2 %, and November at 1.74 million TEU, down 19.7 %. December is forecast at 1.7 million TEU, down 20.1 % yr over yr for the slowest month since 1.62 million TEU in March 2023.
Whereas the falling month-to-month totals are associated to tariffs, the year-over-year share declines are each due to this yr’s early peak season and since imports in late 2024 had been elevated by considerations about port strikes.
The primary half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.6 % yr over yr. The complete yr is forecast at 24.7 million TEU, down 3.4 % from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
January 2026 is forecast at 1.8 million TEU, down 19.1 % yr over yr.
