January 7, 2025 Replace | Freightos

Weekly highlights

• Asia-US West Coast costs (FBX01 Weekly) elevated  23% to $5,929/FEU.
• Asia-US East Coast costs (FBX03 Weekly) elevated 13% to $6,934/FEU.
• Asia-N. Europe costs (FBX11 Weekly) elevated 8% to $5,558/FEU.
• Asia-Mediterranean costs (FBX13 Weekly) elevated 3% to $5,630/FEU.

• China – N. America weekly costs elevated 8% to $6.15/kg.
• China – N. Europe weekly costs fell 20% to $3.44/kg.
• N. Europe – N. America weekly costs fell 8% to $2.12/kg.

Evaluation

The January fifteenth expiration of the interim ILA – USMX settlement set on the conclusion of the three day October strike is quickly approaching.

Talks resumed however shortly collapsed in November with the perimeters far aside on the function of automation and semi-automation at these ports. Negotiations are scheduled to restart right now although carriers are getting ready for a strike, with Maersk urging shippers to choose up or return containers as quickly as doable at East Coast and Gulf ports, and a number of carriers saying mid-month disruption surcharges starting from $850 to $2,000/FEU.   

President elect Trump has explicitly backed the ILA place towards automation, and with the deadline 5 days earlier than the inauguration there’s hypothesis that the USMX – made up largely of overseas ocean carriers – would face important stress to concede. On this state of affairs, if there’s a strike it might be transient.

Alternatively, if the carriers count on to lose in any case, some suspect the carriers could maintain out for longer, which might create congestion, backlogs, and elevated freight charges and income for the carriers within the brief time period.

If the talks don’t result in a fast breakthrough we’ll probably see ports and carriers announce further preparations like these in late September. These steps included deadlines to choose up or drop off containers, prolonged gate hours, reefer reserving suspensions, some vessel diversions to East Coast alternate options for ships scheduled to reach across the deadline, and stopped-clocks on demurrage expenses for containers caught at ports through the strike.

A chronic shutdown would finally impression vessel and container availability at origin ports in Europe and Asia, which may unfold the strike’s impression past North America inflicting delays and price will increase for lanes out of these hubs.

A major shift of volumes or diversions to the West Coast are in all probability unlikely, as many shippers, with peak purchasing season simply behind them, could also be prepared to have containers wait at sea or at ports somewhat than incur the extra prices and problem of a coastal shift. 

Unrelated to the doable strike, transpacific container charges climbed sharply to start out the yr on GRIs supported by pre-Lunar New 12 months demand. Costs are as much as the $6,000/FEU stage to the West Coast and at about $7,000/FEU to the East Coast, with West Coast costs already 20% larger than their LNY peak final yr and East Coast charges 3% larger. Volumes are probably already stronger than common on some frontloading forward of anticipated tariff hikes. Although some carriers are contemplating a further GRI mid-month, there may be skepticism that one other enhance try would succeed so near the vacation interval. 

Asia – Europe and Mediterranean charges climbed solely reasonably final week after important will increase in November and into early December as LNY demand began sooner than common this yr on these lanes as a result of longer lead occasions from Purple Sea diversions. The pre-holiday rush, in addition to some unhealthy climate, is already resulting in elevated congestion and gear shortages in China – with delays of as much as 4 days in Shanghai, Qingdao and Ningbo – and within the Philippines and Vietnam as effectively. 

Labor shortages and strikes in some areas are additionally resulting in congestion and delays at European hubs like Hamburg and Rotterdam in addition to ports in Spain and Italy. These elements may trigger further upward stress on charges main as much as LNY.

Ex-Asia charges ought to ease as seasonal demand decreases later in February and into March. For Asia-Europe commerce, costs could fall again to the $3,000-$4,000/FEU Purple Sea-adjusted flooring reached final March and once more in October, although for the transpacific continued frontloading forward of anticipated tariffs may hold charges from easing as considerably. 

With air cargo’s peak season now over, Freightos Air Index information exhibits ex-China charges have began to say no. China – N. America costs that climbed previous $7.00/kg in December at the moment are again to about $6.00/kg. This stage is one it held for a lot of H2 final yr, however continues to be effectively above the long run non-peak common of about $2.00/kg as e-commerce volumes proceed to impression the market. 

Asia – Europe air charges fell again to $3.44/kg final week after climbing above the $5.00/kg mark briefly in mid-December. And transatlantic charges, which elevated 75% to greater than $3.00/kg from October to mid-December, have now eased to $2.12/kg. A lot of the speed climb on this lane is attributed to peak season capability shifts to the pacific, however the current dip suggests some N. American peak season volumes had been additionally being routed by Europe.