March 25, 2025 Replace | Freightos

Weekly highlights

• Asia-US West Coast costs (FBX01 Weekly) fell 7% to $2,238/FEU.     
• Asia-US East Coast costs (FBX03 Weekly) fell 5% to $3,343/FEU. 
• Asia-N. Europe costs (FBX11 Weekly) fell 6% to $2,565/FEU. 
• Asia-Mediterranean costs (FBX13 Weekly) fell 7% to $3,529/FEU. 

• China – N. America weekly costs elevated 4% to $5.26/kg.
• China – N. Europe weekly costs stayed stage at $3.88/kg.
• N. Europe – N. America weekly costs elevated 2% to $2.47/kg.

Evaluation

Tariff fears – as nicely the already important uncertainty and confusion surrounding the White Home’s commerce coverage – grew this week with the April 2nd deadline set for a lot of tariff bulletins approaching. 

The Trump administration indicated that it’ll slender the scope of reciprocal tariffs initially proposed for all US commerce companions which have tariffs or different commerce limitations on US exports or companies. Solely 15% of the lengthy record of nations with a US commerce imbalance and tariffs on US items will probably be assigned reciprocal tariffs, however these international locations account for many of each whole imports to the US and the commerce deficit. Reciprocal tariffs are anticipated to be introduced if not utilized on April 2nd. 

The degrees of those tariffs will rely on the international tariff charges for US exports and so will range, however the record of the highest 15% – except for China, Mexico, Canada and the EU – consists of ostensible different sourcing companions like India and Vietnam as nicely.

And although some stories indicated that sure deliberate sectoral tariffs can be postponed, yesterday President Trump acknowledged that international duties on automotive and pharmaceutical imports can be introduced quickly, presumably even earlier than April 2nd. 

The president additionally signed an government order on Monday that, additionally efficient April 2nd, will apply 25% tariffs – on high of another relevant tariffs – on all items from any nation that purchases oil from Venezuela. Along with China, this record may embrace Singapore, Vietnam and India.

Lastly, the USTR’s public listening to on its proposed important port name charges focusing on Chinese language-made vessels is underway, with American BCOs, exporters, port labor and ocean carriers all objecting to the rule and the numerous threats it could pose to their respective companies. 

Just lately heightened fears of steep US tariffs on imported alcohol from the EU on April 2nd, have been sufficient for the US Wine Commerce Alliance to advise members to cease all shipments. However regardless of the April deadline for a lot of different attainable tariff bulletins, demand indications recommend that, total, US shippers proceed to frontload because of the uncertainty of what and when tariffs will probably be applied. This pull ahead is mirrored within the latest construct up of empty containers in LA/Lengthy Seaside. 

Transpacific ocean container charges have eased as demand has decreased relative to the pre-Lunar New 12 months rush. However regardless of volumes estimated to be considerably stronger than a 12 months in the past because of continued frontloading, charges have continued to slip. 

At about $2,200/FEU to the West Coast and $3,300/FEU to the East Coast, costs are greater than 20% decrease than 2024 lows on these lanes. The doubtless culprits of this development are the elevated competitors and fewer efficient capability administration ensuing from the brand new provider alliance roll outs, in addition to continued fleet progress. 

Asia – Mediterranean charges of $3,500/FEU are about 20% decrease than post-LNY final 12 months (although about even with its 2024 low), and Asia – Europe’s $2,565/FEU is 20% beneath its 2024 flooring regardless of continued port congestion at many European hubs. With tariff frontloading not an element on these lanes, easing demand and the impacts of the brand new provider alliances are doubtless combining to push charges down.

In air cargo, a Heathrow electrical hearth on Thursday night time saved the airport closed for eighteen hours canceling greater than a thousand flights and stranding greater than 200,000 passengers. Although there have been average air cargo price will increase to different locations within the days following, up to now there are few stories of great ensuing disruptions. 

Freightos Air Index price knowledge additionally reveals that ex-China costs to the US have rebounded by about 15% since earlier this month to greater than $5.25/kg, and to Europe charges have elevated by greater than 20% to almost $3.90/kg.  The China – US price restoration comes regardless of anticipated modifications to de minimis guidelines which can be anticipated to trigger a big drop in e-commerce volumes, with some stories that carriers are already progressively shifting capability to different routes.