Public well being coverage is commonly guided by good intentions, however historical past has repeatedly proven that intentions should not sufficient to ensure success. Overly harsh restrictions, usually based mostly on robust rules, can produce penalties far worse than the issue they goal to resolve. Nowhere is that this extra seen than in tobacco and nicotine regulation, the place aggressive taxation and prohibitionist approaches are more and more driving merchandise underground—out of regulatory attain and into the fingers of organised crime. Current developments in Australia and Belgium illustrate how these insurance policies are undermining public well being, client security and authorities authority alike.
Australia’s tobacco tax catastrophe
Australia’s cigarette market has reached a tipping level. Based on estimates from the federal Illicit Tobacco and E-cigarette Commissioner, roughly 55 % of cigarettes bought within the final monetary 12 months had been unlawful, with some assessments inserting the determine nearer to 60 %. Because of this the vast majority of cigarettes consumed in Australia now bypass all regulatory oversight.
The monetary affect is staggering. The federal authorities is dropping as much as AU$11.8 billion per 12 months in excise income—funds that had been as soon as justified as essential to help healthcare and smoking cessation packages. However the deeper concern is that illicit merchandise are completely unregulated. Shoppers haven’t any assurance about elements, manufacturing requirements or contamination dangers, whereas organised crime networks are thriving on the earnings.
This example didn’t emerge in a single day. Australia’s tobacco excise technique initially appeared profitable. Sharp tax will increase lowered smoking charges and pushed income to a peak in 2019. Nonetheless, continued hikes ultimately priced authorized cigarettes out of attain for a lot of people who smoke. Excise on a typical pack rose from round AU$8 in 2010 to roughly AU$30 by 2025, pushing retail costs past AU$40 per pack. In distinction, black-market cigarettes now promote for underneath AU$15, making unlawful purchases not solely tempting however routine. What was as soon as a marginal exercise has turn out to be normalised throughout socioeconomic teams.
Can the harm be reversed?
What’s worse, economists on the e61 Institute are warning that at this stage, the harm could also be irreversible. Whereas excessive excise charges helped create the illicit market, merely chopping taxes wouldn’t essentially restore authorized gross sales at this level. Legal provide chains at the moment are deeply entrenched, and client habits have shifted. Rolling excise again to 2019 ranges may both increase or cut back income relying on how illicit operators reply—highlighting how fragile the system has turn out to be.
Then once more, authorities have rejected tax reductions, arguing that competing on value with criminals would undermine many years of tobacco management. As an alternative, the federal government has doubled down on enforcement, allocating AU$300 million over two years and seizing greater than 2,200 tonnes of illicit tobacco in 2024–25 alone. But enforcement alone struggles to succeed when demand stays excessive and authorized options are scarce or unaffordable.
A stark warning for Europe
And whereas Australia’s disaster centres on cigarettes, developments in Belgium reveal one other alarming consequence of prohibition: the contamination of illicit nicotine merchandise. Belgium’s drug commissioner, Ine Van Wymersch, has warned that over 80 % of illicit refillable vape pods seized by authorities now include artificial opioids. These substances are not possible to detect by style or scent, making a grave danger for unsuspecting customers—significantly youngsters and youngsters.
Van Wymersch cautions that minors utilizing unlawful vapes could turn out to be depending on opioids earlier than they even perceive what they’re consuming. Past dependancy, she warns of potential interference with mind growth and long-term well being harm. Belgium and the Netherlands are main hubs for artificial drug manufacturing, with precursor chemical compounds legally imported from Asia earlier than being diverted into legal manufacturing networks.
These developments underscore a crucial level typically ignored in coverage debates: when authorized, regulated merchandise disappear, illicit substitutes do not stay benign. Legal organisations haven’t any incentive to make sure security. As an alternative, they maximise revenue and market attain—typically by adulterating merchandise with stronger substances.
Bans create alternatives for criminals
Van Wymersch has linked the recognition of flavoured vapes to legal recruitment methods. Fruit and sweet flavours, she argues, make it simpler for traffickers to introduce adulterated merchandise to younger individuals. This concern has fuelled political momentum in Belgium, the place Well being Minister Frank Vandenbroucke is pushing for one among Europe’s hardest flavour bans.
But tobacco hurt discount specialists warn that such bans truly exacerbate the issue, and danger repeating Australia’s mistake. Eradicating regulated flavoured merchandise doesn’t get rid of demand; it transfers that demand to the black market—the place flavours persist, oversight disappears and contamination dangers multiply.
The broader social penalties are additionally troubling. Legal teams more and more recruit weak youngsters, together with unaccompanied minors, by providing simple cash and standing. Investigations have uncovered corruption involving port staff, cops and authorized professionals, elevating fears about institutional infiltration. Whereas Van Wymersch stops wanting calling Belgium a narco-state, she warns that failing to confront organised crime’s monetary energy may push the nation additional down that path.
The distinction with harm-reduction-oriented international locations is stark. Jurisdictions that regulate safer nicotine merchandise, reminiscent of vaping, snus and nicotine pouches, see decrease illicit commerce and sooner declines in smoking. When people who smoke have entry to reasonably priced, interesting options, they swap. When these options are banned or restricted, smoking persists—and black markets flourish.
A alternative with clear penalties
Australia and Belgium provide a transparent warning. Insurance policies that prioritise punishment over pragmatism don’t get rid of nicotine use; they get rid of security, transparency and management. They empower legal networks, expose customers to unknown dangers and in the end undermine public well being targets.
Tobacco hurt discount isn’t about defending nicotine—it’s about stopping illness and demise. Proof more and more reveals that regulation works the place prohibition fails. Ignoring that proof dangers repeating the identical errors, at an ever-greater human and social price.
Leaked WHO Paperwork Uncover Europe’s New Mindless Nicotine Warfare
