Transpac ocean volumes surge throughout tariff pause; US-EU tensions rising – Could 27, 2025 Replace

Weekly highlights

• Asia-US West Coast costs (FBX01 Weekly) elevated 13% to $2,788/FEU.     
• Asia-US East Coast costs (FBX03 Weekly) elevated 20% to $4,223/FEU. 
• Asia-N. Europe costs (FBX11 Weekly) fell 4% to $2,351/FEU. 
• Asia-Mediterranean costs (FBX13 Weekly) stayed degree at $2,985/FEU.

• China – N. America weekly costs fell 7% to $5.14/kg.
• China – N. Europe weekly costs elevated 6% to $3.73/kg.
• N. Europe – N. America weekly costs fell 1% to $1.87/kg.

Evaluation

Two weeks out from the Could twelfth China-US commerce conflict deescalation announcement – and eleven weeks till the pause expires in August – transpacific ocean volumes are surging.

Hapag-Lloyd estimates that China-US container demand dropped by 20% whereas US tariffs on Chinese language items had been at 145% from early April to mid-Could, with a latest Freightos survey of SMB shippers exhibiting that about half the respondents froze shipments throughout this span. Hapag-Lloyd stories volumes have now rebounded by 50% from April/Could lows, pushing container ranges to low double digit share positive aspects in comparison with earlier than the April tariff rollout.  

Regardless of the deescalation, about 80% of SMB shippers report being no less than as apprehensive about commerce conflict impacts on their companies as they had been earlier than this pause, with many now fast-tracking vacation orders which might be contributing to this quantity surge forward of the August deadline.

The mixture of April’s canceled or paused shipments and a construct up of products manufactured throughout that stretch is contributing to the velocity at which container demand has picked up, although estimates of ready-to-load containers in China vary extensively from 180k to as a lot as 800k TEU. 

Carriers are reinstating sailings and companies canceled throughout the April lull, and some regional carriers are launching transpacific companies in response to the surge. Although carriers are dashing to revive or add capability, some vessels and gear that had been shifted away from the transpacific in April should not again in place but.

The short and robust restart – in addition to some dangerous climate – is inflicting congestion at a number of Chinese language container hubs with wait instances of 12-72 hours for a berth. Surging demand and these restrictions on capability from misplaced vessels and port congestion are placing important upward strain on container charges. FBX transpacific costs to the West Coast climbed13% final week to $2,788/FEU and East Coast charges had been up 20% to $4,223/FEU. Charges are at their highest degree since late February, and GRIs introduced via mid-June may push costs up hundreds of {dollars} extra if demand stays elevated and congestion stays a problem.

Whereas the China-US deescalation has eased commerce tensions considerably on this lane, President Trump’s latest announcement of his intent to introduce a 25% tariff on all smartphone imports by the top of June and 50% tariffs on items from the EU on June 1st are roiling different components of the worldwide provide chain. 

Trump shortly walked again the June 1st EU deadline and reinstated the July date on which the White Home’s reciprocal tariffs on the EU – together with these on a protracted record of different nations – had been already slated to run out although now tariffs might improve to 50% on that date as a substitute of the previously-announced 20% degree.

The president’s 50% tariff declaration was a results of his disapproval of an EU commerce proposal submitted to the US administration earlier within the week. The EU has mentioned it can introduce tariffs on US exports if negotiations fail, although following Trump pushing the deadline again to July the EU introduced steps to quick monitor US commerce talks in hopes of reaching an settlement. These developments might put some added strain on transatlantic shippers, although – presumably as a result of metal and automotive tariffs are already in place – there haven’t been indicators of great frontloading on this lane since April even with the specter of 20% tariffs in July. 

In air cargo, a number of nations apart from the US are exploring making adjustments to their de minimis guidelines in response to the flood of e-commerce items out of China utilizing this exemption to enter these markets. The US suspension of de minimis eligibility for Chinese language imports has led to stories of sharply declining China-US air cargo volumes, largely within the chartered freighter market. Freightos Air Index China-US charges fell 7% final week to $5.14/kg, their lowest degree since March.