General grownup smoking additionally ticked up—from 7.9% to eight.3%—marking the primary nationwide improve in over a decade. These findings straight contradicted the federal authorities’s narrative: that strict vaping rules would cut back nicotine use general.
Australia has lengthy thought-about itself a world chief in tobacco management. With insurance policies like plain packaging, aggressive taxation, and hard-hitting public training campaigns, the nation earned a fame for pushing smoking charges to historic lows. However in recent times, troubling developments recommend that this fame could also be masking a rising public well being disaster—and a authorities more and more reluctant to face the details.
On July 1, 2025, revered analysis agency Roy Morgan launched a startling report (Discovering No. 9936). Its headline: cigarette smoking in Australia is rising—pushed primarily by 18- to 24-year-olds—because the 2024 ban on retail vape gross sales. Based on the corporate’s Single Supply survey, cigarette use amongst younger adults jumped from 8.2% in September 2024 to 11.1% in Might 2025. That equates to roughly 80,000 new people who smoke in a demographic that had beforehand been trending away from cigarettes.
General grownup smoking additionally ticked up—from 7.9% to eight.3%—marking the primary nationwide improve in over a decade. These findings straight contradicted the federal authorities’s narrative: that strict vaping rules would cut back nicotine use general. However as an alternative of prompting pressing public debate, the report disappeared.
The report they clearly didn’t need you to see
Inside 48 hours of publication, the Roy Morgan launch was nowhere to be discovered. The webpage returned a “404” error. Posts on X (previously Twitter) and Fb selling the information have been deleted. Even archived variations on the Wayback Machine vanished—one thing that raised eyebrows amongst transparency advocates. No official retraction or clarification was provided by Roy Morgan or the Division of Well being. Simply silence.
Reddit customers and vaping boards shortly started sharing screenshots and speculating in regards to the abrupt wipeout. Many noticed it not as a technical situation however a transparent case of data suppression. Following an electronic mail alerting us on the matter by Australian tobacco hurt discount (THR) advocacy group ALIVE, Vaping Put up despatched an electronic mail to Roy Morgan, asking for a proof, however after all, none was ever recieved.
Why does this matter? Roy Morgan’s analysis has lengthy been utilized by the Division of Well being in coverage briefings and public campaigns. Its credibility has been central to shaping Australia’s stance on tobacco and nicotine regulation. If its knowledge is now being quietly censored—particularly findings that run counter to authorities messaging—it raises critical issues about transparency and evidence-based policymaking.
An amended narrative – one which fits the Well being Division
Days later, a revised model of the report quietly re-emerged—however key modifications have been made. The up to date launch downplayed the rise in cigarette smoking, widened the time-frame, and emphasised a imprecise “altering nicotine panorama.” It additionally added context about illicit tobacco use, making the spike in authorized cigarette gross sales appear much less alarming. The brand new model now not described the findings as a reversal of progress—it merely said that “additional monitoring” can be wanted. An accompanying video was additionally edited. The unique six-minute model was trimmed by greater than 90 seconds, with the part discussing elevated smoking amongst younger adults eliminated totally. Once more, no disclosure or rationale for these edits was supplied.
These modifications appeared oddly aligned with earlier authorities speaking factors. Even earlier than the unique report vanished, a Well being Division spokesperson had dismissed its conclusions as untimely, claiming the timeframe was “too slim.” The reissued model echoed this language, suggesting that the spike is probably not statistically vital—a shift that critics argue feels extra political than scientific.
Conflicting explanations and lacking accountability
Some lecturers have floated the speculation that errors in evaluation led to the takedown. However Roy Morgan has not confirmed this. As an alternative, it has insisted that its intention was to offer “broader context,” not right errors. This inconsistency raises additional questions: Was the change in narrative resulting from inside reassessment—or exterior stress?
Public well being advocates and hurt discount teams, together with ALIVE (Australian Legalise Vaping Enterprise), have demanded solutions. They’ve known as on each Roy Morgan and Well being Minister Mark Butler to make clear whether or not the report’s elimination was requested or influenced by authorities officers. To date, no clarification has been given. Media retailers that originally reported the findings have additionally remained silent on the deletion and subsequent revisions.
In the meantime, ALIVE reported that Professor Becky Freeman from the College of Sydney, acknowledged {that a} non-public electronic mail alternate amongst tobacco management insiders performed a task in Roy Morgan’s resolution to withdraw a report that offered uncomfortable findings. Importantly, she didn’t query the accuracy of the information. In actual fact, she confirmed there was no situation with the information itself—solely that its interpretation didn’t align with the prevailing narrative. Fairly than encouraging open dialogue or a clear, peer-reviewed correction, the response was a discreet, behind-the-scenes grievance that resulted within the report being eliminated. This isn’t an instance of scientific integrity—it’s censorship offered as high quality assurance.
International knowledge assist the unique report
This after all, is not only a home situation. Comparable coverage outcomes have been noticed internationally. Within the U.S., native flavour bans led to will increase in youth cigarette purchases. New Zealand researchers have warned that proscribing vape entry amongst Māori youth might trigger a return to smoking. Early modeling in Australia had already predicted {that a} retail vape ban would possibly backfire amongst youthful customers—now it seems these warnings are being realized.
If Roy Morgan’s authentic figures have been correct, Australia just isn’t curbing nicotine use. It’s reshaping it—doubtlessly pushing younger individuals from regulated vape merchandise towards lethal flamable cigarettes. That’s not only a coverage failure; it’s a public well being emergency.
Additionally in Australia, a examine highlights the effectivity of vapes for smoking cessation
Including to the complexity, new scientific knowledge helps the concept that vaping may be an efficient device for serving to some people who smoke—particularly these from deprived backgrounds—give up for good.
A latest randomized managed trial carried out by the Nationwide Drug and Alcohol Analysis Centre (NDARC) at UNSW Sydney discovered that nicotine-containing vapes have been considerably simpler than gum or lozenges at serving to low-income Australians give up smoking. Revealed within the Annals of Inner Drugs, the examine adopted over 1,000 every day people who smoke receiving authorities monetary help. Members who used nicotine vapes had a give up fee practically 3 times greater than these utilizing conventional nicotine substitute remedy—28.4% versus 9.6% at six months.
This success was credited to a number of components: flexibility in selecting flavours, the flexibility to imitate the ritual of smoking, and ongoing assist by means of textual content message teaching. Pod-style vapes, that are widespread in Australia, have been used—reinforcing that it’s doable to implement efficient hurt discount with regulated merchandise.
The examine did elevate issues about potential long-term nicotine dependence. Consultants careworn that vaping needs to be seen as a transitional assist—not a everlasting resolution. Nevertheless, THR specialists have lengthy highlighted that within the context of decreasing hurt, switching to a non-combustible nicotine product is a victory for public well being, as nicotine doesn’t trigger most cancers, or any of the opposite ailments that cigarettes do.
In the end the examine reinforces what hurt discount advocates have been saying for years: vaping can play an important position in decreasing tobacco-related hurt, notably in populations which were hardest to achieve with conventional give up strategies.
What Roy Morgan wasn’t allowed to say
The deliberate omission—or no less than the unexplained erasure—of Roy Morgan’s authentic report just isn’t a trivial matter. It displays a broader discomfort inside Australian well being authorities round inconvenient truths. Fairly than grappling with the unintended penalties of the retail vape ban, the response seems to have been: delete, revise, reframe.
But when insurance policies are failing, the worst response is to obscure the proof. Younger Australians now turning to cigarettes are paying the value for these decisions. They deserve trustworthy public well being management, not spin. Roy Morgan ought to present a clear account of what led to the elimination and rewriting of its July 1 findings. Furthermore, the Division of Well being should make clear whether or not it performed a task. And the media should do its job: asking questions, investigating modifications, and holding officers accountable.
Australia nonetheless has a possibility to course right—however provided that it confronts the information, even when it’s uncomfortable. True management means being keen to acknowledge when issues aren’t working—and to vary course earlier than extra lives are misplaced.
Tax, Ban, or Reform? Australia’s Tobacco Coverage at a Tipping Level
