Weekly pending gross sales
Pending house gross sales information gives a week-to-week perspective, although outcomes will be affected by holidays and short-term fluctuations, reminiscent of the large winter storm in January. We had been exhibiting year-over-year development to start out the yr and that snowstorm did sluggish issues down.
Two weeks in the past, we had a pleasant week-to-week information print. This week, we’re again to year-over-year development once more too. Over the previous few years, our weekly pending house gross sales information tends to be largely optimistic with mortgage charges close to 6%.
Weekly pending gross sales final week over the past two years:
- 2026: 59,283
- 2025: 56,693
Mortgage buy utility information
Buy utility information is a forward-looking information line: the expansion right here leads gross sales roughly 30-90 days out, and we noticed 8% year-over-year development on this information line final week.
Nevertheless, what I actually worth is at the least 12-14 weeks of optimistic weekly development. If you will get this along with year-over-year development, we have now one thing legit for certain. For 2026, we have now had each week present optimistic year-over-year development.
As you may see within the chart under, we do have some seasonal stream with the weekly information.
Right here’s 2026 up to now:
- 2 optimistic week-over-week outcomes
- 3 unfavourable week-to-week prints
- 1 flat week-to-week print
- 3 weeks of double-digit year-over-year development
- 6 weeks of optimistic yr over yr development
10-year yield and mortgage charges
Within the 2026 HousingWire forecast, I anticipated the next ranges:
- Mortgage charges between 5.75% and 6.75%
- The ten-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.60%
Final week we had plenty of financial information and loopy headlines, however not a lot motion within the 10-year yield or mortgage charges.
After Friday’s massive Supreme Courtroom resolution on tariffs, President Trump introduced a plan to lift international tariffs to fifteen% unilaterally, however not an excessive amount of occurred with mortgage charges or the 10-year yield, even with the Supreme Courtroom information, decrease GDP numbers and inflation operating at 3% yr over yr.
Charges ended the week decrease at 6.04%, in response to Mortgage Information Each day, and mortgage price lock information from Polly reveals a weekend price of 6.26%.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads stay a optimistic story for housing in 2026, decreasing mortgage-rate volatility, and are near regular ranges.
Traditionally, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%. Final week’s spreads closed at 1.94%.
If spreads matched the 2023 peak ranges, mortgage charges can be 1.20 share factors larger, at 7.21%. With spreads returning to regular, mortgage pricing can stay decrease for longer than in earlier years. Realistically, we solely have 20-34 foundation factors of enchancment left within the spreads.
Weekly housing stock information
Housing stock grew this week as we’re near the standard rise we see every year with the spring promoting season. The expansion price of stock has cooled since charges fell in June of 2025, however stock stays at multiyear highs, conserving pricing in examine.
We now have gone from 33% year-over-year development to 9.38% final week.
- Weekly stock change: (Feb. 13-Feb. 20): Stock rose from 690,547 to 700,259
- Similar week final yr: (Feb. 14-Feb. 21): Stock rose from 637,984 to 640,221
New listings information
New listings information, similar to weekly pending house gross sales, are again to year-over-year development. Since most house sellers are additionally consumers, this can be a optimistic signal that each are again to year-over-year development.
I’m hoping for the brand new listings information to vary between 80,000 and 100,000 per week through the seasonal peak intervals, because it did from 2013-2019. For context, through the housing bubble crash, new listings ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for a number of years.
Right here is final week’s new listings information for the previous two years:
- 2026: 60,428
- 2025: 53,861
Value-cut share
Usually, about one-third of properties bear value reductions earlier than they promote, reflecting the dynamic nature of the housing market. As mortgage charges and stock rise collectively, the proportion of value cuts will increase.
Nevertheless, charges are close to multiyear lows, so after a really very long time, we are actually seeing unfavourable year-over-year price-cut share information. This shouldn’t be stunning provided that demand has picked up barely and stock development has slowed.
The value-cut share final week is now 1% decrease than this time final yr.
The value-cut share for final week:
The week forward: Fed speeches, bond auctions and potential tariff market response
We now have some important financial information developing this week, however we even have some fascinating storylines, with massive bond auctions and a query on how the market will reply to Trump’s massive tariff information over the weekend.
We now have some Fed speeches and the PPI inflation report this week, together with the house value index experiences. Jobless claims information comes out each Thursday, and the information nonetheless seems to be good right here.
The snow affect initially despatched jobless claims larger, however that information line has fallen not too long ago because the snow affect melts out of the information pool. That is shaping as much as be one more very fascinating week for the housing market!
