The 12 months 2025 was one other tumultuous one for each ocean and air freight markets. Among the key drivers of freight tendencies in 2025 are prone to proceed impacting markets in 2026, whereas others could give solution to new elements and tendencies. What follows is a rundown of these key drivers in 2025, and data-based projections for what these may imply for the brand new 12 months.
Take a look at our World Freight 2025 12 months in Overview and 2026 Lookahead webinar right here
Key Takeaways for 2026:
- Commerce battle dynamics considerably disrupted transpacific ocean freight seasonality in 2025, with frontloading driving stronger H1 than H2 volumes and an general quantity dip for the 12 months.
- World container volumes nonetheless grew as China diversified export markets. A extra secure US tariff panorama suggests a possible return to freight seasonality in 2026 – although SCOTUS’s pending IEEPA ruling creates uncertainty – and progress globally even when US imports contract.
- Fleet progress created oversupply regardless of continued Purple Sea diversions – and drove constantly decrease 12 months on 12 months charges in 2025 – a pattern prone to proceed into 2026 as new vessels proceed to enter the market.
- Carriers are additionally taking cautious steps towards a Purple Sea return, rising the chance of resumed Suez visitors in 2026; the transition will initially trigger vital congestion and delays at European hubs in addition to upward strain on charges. As soon as the congestion unwinds although, the launched capability will exacerbate oversupply.
- Air cargo proved resilient regardless of the commerce battle, each globally and to the US. The US de minimis closure for China initially brought on a pointy lower in transpac volumes; however by July, demand recovered to 2024 ranges by way of e-commerce changes and elevated basic cargo from locations like Vietnam the place electronics exports have surged.
- Volumes on Asia-Europe, intra-Asia and different air cargo lanes grew – even whereas transpacific volumes stalled, partly from Chinese language exports shifting to different markets. IATA tasks 2.6% world quantity progress in 2026 as these tendencies are prone to proceed.
- Air cargo charges remained remarkably secure regardless of these quantity shifts, following seasonal patterns and staying largely on par with 2024 ranges as carriers quickly redeployed capability from transpacific to rising lanes like Asia-Europe. Agile capability shifts are prone to mood price fluctuations for 2026 as properly.
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Ocean – Tariffs, Capability & Purple Sea
Commerce Warfare Impacts
The US-initiated commerce battle that obtained underway in February 2025, with its shifting tariffs threats, deadlines, postponements and introductions skewed the everyday seasonality of the transpacific ocean freight 12 months.
Importers frontloaded or paused container bookings to attempt to beat or keep away from larger prices from potential tariff adjustments. The beginning and cease meant stronger US ocean import volumes within the first half of the 12 months and weaker volumes in H2, with uncertainty round shopper demand leading to an general 1.4% drop in container imports in 2025 in response to the Nationwide Retail Federation.
Globally although, the commerce battle hasn’t proved a drag on container progress, with 12 months so far world volumes by way of October rising greater than 4% 12 months on 12 months world volumes in response to CTS. The commerce battle not directly spurred this progress by driving a diversification of vacation spot markets for items popping out of the Far East, particularly from China because the manufacturing energy sought and located export progress by way of markets aside from the US.
China’s exports by worth elevated greater than 5% 12 months on 12 months by way of November regardless of a pointy drop in exports to the US. Likewise, whereas Asia – N. America container volumes contracted by 2% by way of October, Asia – Europe demand grew 8.6%, with even stronger will increase to Africa and LATAM.
By This fall the US tariff panorama solidified by way of US commerce agreements with lots of its main buying and selling companions, and a China – US deescalation settlement by way of November 2026. All else being equal then, these developments make the return of freight seasonality for N. America possible in 2026.
Uncertainty Forward
Nevertheless, the US Supreme Court docket is about to resolve by July on the validity of the Trump administration’s use of the Worldwide Emergency Financial Powers Act for all of its country-specific tariffs. Although the White Home has acknowledged it’s already making ready fast tariff introductions by different means ought to SCOTUS resolve towards it, there may be some hypothesis that the administration, dealing with price of residing considerations, may use a court docket loss as a tariff off-ramp.
If the Supreme Court docket determination opens up a large enough low-tariff window, we may see frontloading as soon as once more. But when the federal government rapidly restores tariffs by way of different means there shouldn’t be a lot of an affect on freight. Lastly, if tariffs are eliminated and importers are satisfied they aren’t coming again any time quickly, we may see some preliminary improve in volumes – and stronger volumes general – however not sudden begins and stops.
Globally, we may count on 2026 to look just like 2025 in its general progress, but in addition in its diversification and quantity progress or contraction by lane. The S+P tasks that 2026 US ocean imports will contract by 2% as tariff prices may begin to affect importer selections and shopper spending extra strongly than in 2025. In the meantime BIMCO estimates world volumes will improve by 2.5% to three.5% nonetheless.
Purple Sea Diversions, and a Rising Fleet
Purple Sea diversions that began in late 2023 had been estimated to have absorbed about 9% of worldwide container capability by protecting ships at sea for longer and – with longer journeys which means vessels would arrive again at origins days not on time – by way of carriers including additional vessels to providers with the intention to keep deliberate weekly departures.
This drain on capability drove 2024 Asia – Europe and transpacific charges to peak season highs of $8,000 – $10,000/FEU and set a extremely elevated flooring of $3,000 – $5,000/FEU throughout low demand intervals that 12 months.
However even with Purple Sea diversions persevering with to soak up capability in 2025, continued fleet progress by way of newly constructed vessels getting into the market has meant that the container commerce has already turn out to be considerably oversupplied. And this provide progress has meant constantly decrease container charges in 2025 in comparison with 2024 even throughout months when volumes have been stronger, with costs on some lanes reaching 2023 ranges for a span in early October.
However since November a number of main container carriers have taken cautious steps towards resuming Purple Sea transits, rising the chance of a Purple Sea return in 2026.
When Purple Sea visitors does resume it’s going to trigger worse and vital vessel bunching and congestion at European hubs, and sure drive tools shortages at Far East origin ports as carriers search to shorten vessel time spent at berth. The shift again might be disruptive and trigger delays and price will increase – presumably throughout the market – each time it happens, although the impact can be weaker if the return is within the low demand, spring months post-LNY and pre-peak season, and stronger if it coincides with peak season demand will increase, with this transition prone to stretch on for weeks.
As soon as that congestion unwinds although, the Purple Sea return will improve the quantity of capability out there in an already oversupplied market and put extra downward strain on charges.. New vessel deliveries will lower in 2026 in comparison with 2025, however the affect of the rise in provide on charges – even when Purple Sea diversions proceed – will possible be vital nonetheless, with larger ranges of newbuild deliveries set for 2027 and 2028.
Carriers will face a fair greater capability administration problem when Purple Sea transits resume, however will do their finest to cut back capability – by way of blanked sailings, idling vessels, scrapping older ships, and sluggish steaming – and preserve charges at worthwhile ranges.
Air – De Minimis, Resiliency, Reshuffle
Commerce battle adjustments, shifting volumes
For air cargo, de minimis exemptions have been one vital issue facilitating the surge of low-cost B2C e-commerce volumes touring by excessive price air transport since about mid-2023 – principally from China and principally to Europe and the US.
On the finish of 2024, IATA projected that world air cargo volumes would develop by greater than 5% in 2025. However when US tariffs had been launched in April, adopted by the US suspension of de minimis eligibility for Chinese language exports in Might, IATA lowered its expectations to lower than 1% progress, anticipating a major pull again in H2 volumes as a result of closure of de minimis to China, and later, to all imports.
However, like within the container market, world volumes proved resilient, each by way of diversification of China’s exports to different markets as progress engines, and from commerce battle insurance policies that spurred a shift in transpacific quantity flows.
The US de minimis closure for China in Might did certainly drive a pointy drop in air cargo imports – estimated at greater than 40% for e-commerce imports by air from China to the US month on month in Might, a drop of 12% in complete Asia – N. America volumes month on month, and a greater than 10% lower 12 months on 12 months.
Air cargo demand in 2025 grew regardless of transpacific quantity contraction in H2 as volumes on different lanes continued to extend.
However by July, Asia – N. America volumes had been again to about even with 2024 ranges, pushed again up by some restoration of e-commerce volumes as e-comm platforms adjusted to the brand new guidelines, and will increase normally cargo each from China and from different Far East manufacturing hubs, most notably Vietnam as electronics exports from there have surged as tariffs on China climbed.
And whereas transpacific volumes, even with this rebound, have proven no 12 months on 12 months progress in H2, demand on different lanes, particularly Asia – Europe and intra-Asia, have proven double digit annual progress all year long as Chinese language exports surge to markets aside from the US, powering 12 months so far world progress of 4% for worldwide volumes by way of October.
That price is far decrease than the exceptional 11% annual progress seen as e-commerce turn out to be a dominant issue within the air cargo market in 2024. However this resiliency and diversification has led IATA to challenge 2.6% world quantity progress in 2026 on expectations that the drivers of demand energy in 2025 will carry over into 2026.
Shifting capability, extra secure charges
Regardless of these substantial quantity swings, Freightos Air Index knowledge reveals that air cargo charges adopted seasonal tendencies – will increase post-Lunar New 12 months, stability by way of the summer time, and will increase across the This fall peak season – and remained about even with 2024 ranges. This relative worth stability alongside vital shifts in demand was as a consequence of carriers quickly eradicating capability from the transpacific as demand decreased and shifting it to lanes like Asia – Europe the place demand was rising sharply.
For the 12 months, China to US and Europe charges had been up 1% and a couple of% respectively, although charges had been barely stronger than in 2024 in H1 and barely weaker in H2, reflecting the lower in demand for China-US and the numerous improve in capability for China – Europe. Costs out of South East Asia in the meantime, confirmed double digit 12 months on 12 months acquire in H1, whereas charges had been decrease 12 months on 12 months in H2, once more reflecting the shift of capability to those lanes as commerce battle impacts spurred demand will increase out of those origins.
European Union nations introduced intentions to shut their de minimis exceptions by 2027, with the likelihood to take action as early as 2026. The UK too introduced a 2029 deadline to shut their exemption. If these insurance policies change we are going to possible see an analogous brief time period dip in volumes, slower progress on these lanes. However even with these adjustments, e-comm is unlikely to vanish from these lanes or from the skies normally.
