Tesla’s registrations in California crashed 24.3% within the first quarter of 2026, with the automaker promoting over 10,000 fewer autos within the state in comparison with the identical interval final yr.
The information comes from the California New Automotive Sellers Affiliation’s (CNCDA) Q1 2026 Auto Outlook report, which additionally reveals that the state’s total zero-emission car (ZEV) market share has plunged to only 13.7% — the bottom stage since This autumn 2021.
Tesla’s California decline deepens
In keeping with the CNCDA report, Tesla registered 31,958 autos in California throughout Q1 2026, down from 42,211 in Q1 2025. That’s a decline of 10,253 items — a big drop contemplating that Q1 2025 was already a weak quarter for Tesla as a result of Mannequin Y changeover that constrained manufacturing and led to a 15% gross sales slide.
Tesla’s total California market share fell from 9.2% to 7.7%. The Mannequin Y remained the top-selling gentle SUV within the state with 22,907 registrations and a 53.3% share of the posh compact SUV phase, however these numbers are down significantly from a yr in the past. The Mannequin 3 registered 5,688 items.
California’s EV market is in freefall
The broader image is much more alarming. Complete ZEV registrations in California dropped 40.2% year-over-year in Q1 2026, falling from 95,520 to only 57,111 items. ZEV market share plunged from round 21% in 2025 to only 13.7% — a stage the state hasn’t seen in over 4 years.
The carnage was widespread amongst EV manufacturers. Mercedes-Benz ZEV registrations collapsed 81.9%, Chevrolet dropped 59.6%, BMW fell 58.9%, Ford declined 58.8%, Kia dropped 48.2%, and Rivian plunged 35.9%. Even Hyundai, which has been gaining floor within the EV market, noticed a 30.4% decline in ZEV registrations.
In the meantime, hybrids surged to twenty.9% market share — now exceeding ZEVs — and gas-powered autos climbed again to 61.1% of registrations, up from 54% in 2025. The shift is unmistakable.
The first perpetrator is obvious: the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit score on September 30, 2025. As we reported earlier this yr, new EV gross sales nationally dropped 28% in Q1 2026 because the impression of shedding the tax credit score rippled by way of the market. California, because the nation’s largest EV market accounting for 29.6% of all US ZEV registrations, is feeling it acutely.
Lucid is a uncommon shiny spot
Amongst all this destruction, Lucid stands out as one of many only a few winners. The automaker’s California registrations surged 37.1%, rising from 959 to 1,315 items, making it the top-performing model within the state by proportion development. The Gravity electrical SUV, which drove a manufacturing surge in This autumn 2025, is clearly discovering consumers in its residence state.
Solely six different manufacturers posted will increase in California: Mitsubishi (+22.6%), Genesis (+10.2%), Lexus (+7.3%), Volvo (+7.1%), Chrysler (+4.1%), and Toyota (+3.5%). Notably, the manufacturers posting features are largely promoting hybrids and fuel autos — Lucid is the one pure EV model within the group.
Electrek’s Take
I can already hear Tesla shareholders rejoicing about the truth that Tesla didn’t decline as a lot because the broader BEV market in California. Tesla’s ZEV market share truly rose from 44.2% to 56.0% as opponents fell off a cliff even tougher. Honest sufficient — Tesla’s 24% decline seems to be nearly modest in comparison with the 40% crash throughout all the ZEV market.
However as somebody who believed in Tesla’s authentic mission to speed up the transition to sustainable vitality, this doesn’t do a lot for me. Tesla registered over 10,000 fewer autos in California than it did in Q1 2025 — 1 / 4 when the corporate was already production-constrained as a result of Mannequin Y changeover. That’s dangerous. That’s the direct impression of the federal tax credit score going away.
The broader numbers are devastating for the EV transition. California’s ZEV market share fell from 21% to 13.7% — wiping out years of progress. Fuel autos are again above 61% of the market. Hybrids now outsell EVs within the state. That is what occurs whenever you take away the only best coverage device for EV adoption. Tesla gaining a bigger share of a shrinking pie just isn’t a victory for anybody who cares concerning the mission.
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