Transpac ocean charges nonetheless easing regardless of US-China tariff extension – August 14, 2025 Replace

Weekly highlights

• Asia-US West Coast costs (FBX01 Weekly) fell 10% to $2,119/FEU.
• Asia-US East Coast costs (FBX03 Weekly) fell 10% to $3,572/FEU.
• Asia-N. Europe costs (FBX11 Weekly) fell 3% to $3,327/FEU.
• Asia-Mediterranean costs (FBX13 Weekly) fell 4% to $3,144/FEU.

• China – N. America weekly costs elevated 11% to $5.16/kg.
• China – N. Europe weekly costs fell 1% to $3.68/kg.
• N. Europe – N. America weekly costs elevated 1% to $1.76/kg.

Evaluation

US reciprocal tariffs on an extended listing of buying and selling companions – together with EU nations, Japan and S. Korea – went into impact final week. The administration has additionally prolonged its establishment 30% baseline tariff for all imports from China for one more 90 days ending November tenth, collectively including some stability when it comes to tariff expectations at the very least into This autumn for many lengthy haul ocean importers to the US.

Escalating US-India tensions over President Trump’s opposition to India’s purchases of Russian oil in the meantime, led the president to introduce 25% tariffs on India’s exports and signal an govt order that will elevate duties to 50% if an settlement isn’t reached earlier than August twenty seventh. 

When it comes to ocean freight, this escalation is already resulting in a drop in export orders and container demand out of India as many shippers decide to attend till the tariff mud settles.

The US tariff readability for European exports – particularly the discount of auto elements tariffs from 25% to fifteen% – could also be driving some enhance in transatlantic container demand as spot charges climbed 15% final week to $2,220/FEU after holding regular on the $1,900/FEU degree since early Could.

Transpacific ocean charges fell 10% to each coasts final week to $2,119/FEU to the West Coast and $3,572/FEU to the East Coast. Day by day charges to each coasts have stayed degree for the reason that US tariff extension for Chinese language imports. 

The 30% China tariff extension might spur some peak season quantity and container charge will increase within the coming weeks that might not have materialized if the US had as an alternative raised tariffs on China on August twelfth. Total although, tariff-driven frontloading by shippers within the lead as much as the April and July/August tariff deadlines is prone to imply muted ocean volumes via the tip of the yr, with the subsequent vital demand bump solely coming forward of subsequent yr’s Lunar New Yr. 

The most recent Nationwide Retail Federation US ocean quantity report exhibits that container imports climbed to 2.2 million TEU in April, and estimates that volumes peaked at 2.3 million TEU in July, and can keep elevated at 2.2 million in August earlier than falling sharply via the tip of the yr. 

Whereas US container imports usually enhance within the second half of the yr, these projections have H2 volumes down 8% in comparison with the primary half of the yr, and 14% decrease than the second half of final yr, with anticipation that totals for September via December might be 20% decrease than in 2024. 

For the yr, 2025 totals are projected to be 6% decrease than final yr. These projections had been launched earlier than the US-China tariff extension, besides, frontloading up to now as mirrored in these information remains to be prone to imply that the remainder of the yr will take this normal path and imply minimal if any upward stress on charges for the remainder of the yr as properly. 

Asia – N. Europe container charges dipped 3% to about $3,300/FEU final week to simply beneath their degree in early July regardless of stories of cheap peak season quantity energy and chronic port congestion. Asia – Mediterranean costs fell 4% to $3,144/FEU making eight consecutive weeks of declines. Charge conduct on these lanes – with costs 60% decrease than a yr in the past at the same time as Crimson Sea diversions proceed – counsel overcapacity is already impacting container charge ranges throughout lanes.

For air cargo, the US-China tariff extension might imply some air cargo frontloading in late October and early November if no settlement is in place by then because the November tenth expiration would kick in simply as the standard air cargo peak season would usually start. US tariff selections on semiconductors and prescription drugs are anticipated quickly, and relying on the small print, might have implications for air cargo quantity timing and ranges for these sectors as properly.

Tariff deadlines might have contributed to the average enhance in international air cargo volumes in July, although capability shifts away from lanes with easing demand and to trades with growing volumes have stored charges secure general however decrease in comparison with final yr. 

Freightos Air Index China-US charges rebounded to $5.16/kg final week, however stay beneath the $5.30/kg degree principally held since mid-June, and had been at in regards to the $5.80/kg degree a yr in the past. China – Europe costs had been secure at about $3.70/kg final week in comparison with $3.80/kg final yr. South East Asia – Europe charges climbed to $3.68/kg final week after dipping to about $2.60/kg in mid-July, and are about even yr on yr, with SEA – US costs of $4.83/kg 17% decrease than final August.